Data & Methods
Methodology
& Sources
How we built the comparisons, where the numbers come from, and what the model does and doesn't claim.
What this project shows

This site documents a single, measurable fact: performances that represent the absolute peak of women's athletic achievement are routinely surpassed by male athletes at the high school and youth level. Every comparison uses the same sport, the same event, and the same units — no cross-sport conversions, no adjusted standards.

The Track & Field and Other Sports pages show specific data points: world records compared to high school or junior results. The Impact page models a hypothetical — if X% of US high school boys entered women's competition, where would today's world record holders rank? That is a statistical model with real uncertainty; the other pages are direct factual comparisons.

Why team sports are not included. Major professional leagues — NBA, WNBA, NHL, PWHL, NFL, MLB, NWSL — were evaluated and excluded. Team sport statistics are inherently context-dependent: pace of play, opponent quality, roster construction, and structural rule differences (women's hockey bans body checking; basketball uses different ball sizes) all shape the numbers in ways that cannot be isolated. A shooting percentage or a save percentage reflects the competition environment as much as the individual athlete. This site only includes comparisons where both athletes are performing the identical task under identical conditions — the same distance, the same implement, the same rules — so that the numbers speak for themselves without requiring adjustment.

The impact model — how it works

The slider on the Impact page represents the share of the total US high school boys population for a given sport who would theoretically enter women's competition. At 0% nothing changes. At 10% of the track pool, that is 64,424 boys.

For track and field events, rank displacement uses an empirical anchor: verified counts of US high school boys who have beaten each women's world record mark in a recent competitive season. These counts come from Athletic.net wind-legal performance data (≤+2.0 m/s, fully automatic timing) and Track & Field News annual rankings. The count at the world record threshold is scaled proportionally by the participation percentage and the relative depth of the performance distribution near that threshold.

For non-T&F events (swimming, bowling, rowing ergometer), where comprehensive wind-legal data does not exist, a statistical distribution model is used with parameters anchored to verified competition benchmarks. Those events are labeled estimated.

Rank displacement formula (T&F events)

boys_at_wr = empirical_annual_count × (pct / 100)

new_rank = original_rank + boys_at_wr × depth_ratio

Where empirical_annual_count is the number of US HS boys verified to have beaten the world record in a recent season, and depth_ratio accounts for the relative number of boys who clear marks slightly above or below the world record level.

Note: The empirical counts reflect actual verified performances in sanctioned US high school competition — wind-legal marks only, fully automatic timing. They represent the number of individual athletes who cleared the threshold in the given season, not the number of performances (a single athlete who ran sub-10.49 three times counts once).
Track & field — annual counts

The total US high school boys outdoor track & field population is 644,235 (NFHS 2024–25 participation survey). Annual empirical counts of US HS boys who have beaten the women's world record, by event:

Event Women's WR Annual Count Source & Methodology
100m 10.49 ~178/yr Empirical Athletic.net wind-legal results (≤+2.0 m/s, FAT); 2024 outdoor season; unique athletes only
200m 21.34 ~155/yr Empirical Athletic.net wind-legal results (≤+2.0 m/s, FAT); 2024 outdoor season; unique athletes only
400m 47.60s ~135/yr Empirical Athletic.net performance data and T&F News annual top-25 depth; 2022–2024 seasons
800m 1:53.28 ~90/yr Empirical T&F News annual top-25 lists confirm all 25 tracked performers clear by wide margin; additional depth from Athletic.net
1500m 3:49.11 estimated Estimated No comprehensive national count available; distribution-modeled from 800m and mile anchors
Mile 4:07.64 ~75/yr Empirical T&F News annual top-25 lists confirm 20+ performers per year well under threshold; full depth from Athletic.net
5000m 13:58.06 ~1/yr Empirical T&F News + Athletic.net; Daniel Simmons (13:25.86) was the only US HS boy under this threshold in 2024
Jump events — annual counts

Jump event counts are sourced from T&F News annual top-25 lists and Athletic.net performance data. Annual counts reflect the number of US high school boys who have cleared or exceeded each women's world record mark in a recent season.

Event Women's WR Annual Count Source & Methodology
High Jump 2.10m ~27/yr Empirical T&F News annual top-25 lists; both 2023 and 2024 confirm all 25 tracked performers cleared 2.10m, plus ~2 additional estimated beyond top-25
Long Jump 7.52m ~10/yr Empirical T&F News annual data; approximately 10 performers exceed 7.52m each season (2024 top-10 all exceeded)
Triple Jump 15.74m ~1/yr Empirical T&F News; Karson Gordon (16.19m, 2024) is the only confirmed US HS boy above the 2022 WR threshold in recent seasons
Pole Vault 5.06m ~20/yr Empirical T&F News; 2023 lists confirm 17 of 25 tracked performers exceeded 5.06m; 2024 depth estimated at ~20
Throw events — included with caveat

Shot put, discus, hammer, and javelin are now included as elite-to-elite comparisons (men's senior world record vs. women's senior world record), not distribution-modeled comparisons. In three of four events — shot put, javelin, and hammer — the men's world record exceeds the women's world record in raw distance, despite men using heavier implements. In the fourth event (discus), the women's world record (76.80m) is 1.24m longer in raw distance, but men throw a disc twice as heavy (2.00 kg vs. 1.00 kg).

The direction of bias is known and consistent: men's marks systematically understate their advantage because heavier implements reduce achievable distance. If men used the lighter women's implements, every gap shown would be larger. Throw events are therefore a conservative floor, not an outlier.

The distribution model used for track and jump events cannot be applied to throws — no sufficiently large, standardized dataset of US high school boys' throw marks exists to build a reliable mean and SD. The HS boys marks shown in the Impact section use standard boys' implement weights and cannot be directly compared to women's marks set with lighter implements.

Event Men's implement Women's implement Men's WR Women's WR Raw winner
Shot Put 7.26 kg (16 lb) 4.00 kg (8.8 lb) 23.56m — Crouser (USA) 2023 22.63m — Lisovskaya (URS) 1987 Men +0.93m
Discus 2.00 kg 1.00 kg 75.56m — Alekna (LTU) 2025 76.80m — Reinsch (GDR) 1988 Women +1.24m raw — men use 2× heavier disc
Hammer 7.26 kg (16 lb) 4.00 kg (8.8 lb) 86.74m — Sedykh (URS) 1986 82.98m — Włodarczyk (POL) 2016 Men +3.76m
Javelin 800g 600g 98.48m — Železný (CZE) 1996 72.28m — Špotáková (CZE) 2008 Men +26.20m
Beyond track & field — distributions

Each sport in the Beyond Track & Field section uses its own male participant population (not the 644,235 track total) and its own estimated distribution.

Sport / Event Population Mean · SD Basis
Swimming
100m Free LCM
136,000
NFHS 2024–25
77s · 9s Estimated Boys' marks are measured in 25-yard (SCY) pools; converted to 50m (LCM) equivalents using a ~7–8% adjustment factor derived from FINA conversion tables. NISCA national rankings used as upper anchor (~42s SCY ≈ 45s LCM for elite). Uncertainty in the full-pool mean is meaningful — actual displacement could be higher if the LCM conversion is conservative.
Bowling
Season Average
70,000
NFHS 2024–25
163 avg · 27 Estimated Distribution estimated from USHSBNC state qualifying scores and USBC Youth national competition data. PWBA marks are full-season tour averages; HS tournament scores use a 4-game peak block format, which skews slightly higher than season averages — comparisons should be read with this caveat.
Rowing
2000m Erg
10,000
SRAA est.
7:30 · 50s Estimated Distribution anchored to Concept2 global U18 leaderboard data and SRAA national championship qualifying times. The HS rowing population is small and athletically selected — mean performance is considerably higher than a random teen population would suggest. Displacement is therefore higher in rowing than the raw numbers imply about the sport's difficulty.
Data sources
Caveats & limitations

The Impact model is a statistical estimate, not a prediction. Normal distributions are approximations — actual male athletic performance is right-skewed (more elite outliers than the model predicts at the high end, more non-competitive participants at the low end). The true displacement could be higher or lower depending on how the actual distribution deviates from normal.

Estimated distributions carry real uncertainty. Events marked "Estimated" use parameters derived from known anchors (state qualifying standards, All-American lists, national top-10 data) rather than full empirical datasets. The 200m, 800m, 1500m, 5000m, and all jump events fall into this category. Treat those results as directionally correct, not precise.

The swimmer pool/format conversion introduces uncertainty. US high school boys primarily compete in 25-yard (SCY) pools. Women's world records are set in 50m (LCM) pools. Converting between the two formats involves a known approximate adjustment (~7–8%) but individual variation means some boys near the threshold could be on either side.

Participation ≠ competition readiness. The NFHS participation total includes all boys who competed in at least one event during the season — not all are trained specialists in the events shown. The model's use of the full population rather than event specialists is intentional (it answers the "what if boys were allowed to enter" question, not "what if only elite boys entered"), but it means the results should be read in that context.

Women's marks used throughout are world bests, not averages. This site compares the absolute peak of women's performance — not average women's performance — to high school boys. The point is not that random boys beat random women. It is that performances representing the ceiling of women's athletic achievement are surpassed by teenage boys competing at high school or junior level.

What if 3% of high school boys were allowed to compete in adult women's sports?
Find out — see the impact →